Polling guru Curtice warns climate ‘couldn’t be worse’ for new PM

John Curtice breaks down Rishi Sunak's polling figures

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Polling expert Sir John Curtice has indicated the data “couldn’t be worse” for the Conservative Party as Rishi Sunak takes over as the new Prime Minister. Following the Partygate scandal, the Conservative Party’s position in the polls began to decline and fell sharply after Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget ignited economic turmoil. Under the authority of a new leader, the Tories are tasked with recovering from a huge drop in public support as Rishi Sunak is challenged to repair the disastrous economy he is set to inherit from his predecessor Liz Truss.

Discussing the latest poll trends on Talk TV, Sir John said: “It’s as bad as it has been for any new leader – Conservatives are running, on average, in the polls around 30 points behind Labour. 

“If we had a general election tomorrow, we could be talking about no more than 50 or 60 Conservative MPs.”

He added: “So, frankly, things couldn’t be worse.”

YouGov tracking data indicates the public belief that a large labour majority will win the next general election has soared since September after Liz Truss took office.

Sir John offered a sense of hope for the new Prime Minister as he continued: “Given, indeed, that things are as bad as they are, one is almost tempted to say there is only one way and that is up. 

“New leaders usually get something of a bounce in the polls, although Liz Truss was an exception to that rule.

“Secondly, there is very clear evidence that Sunak is less unpopular, and I deliberately use that phrase, than Liz Truss.”

Sir John indicated that the most recent polling data from YouGov indicated that Rishi Sunak was perceived significantly more favourably than Liz Truss. However, with regard to the overall view, both politicians were still viewed more unfavourably than favourably in the public eye.

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Sir John expressed that the harsh public view of “unfavourable” was a label frequently attached to political figures due to the divisive nature of politics itself. 

He reported Rishi Sunak could be considered “somebody who is, as it were, simply being regarded like many politicians – not somebody who most people would be in favour of, but still has their admirers.”

Sir John noted that the polling indications should be taken with a “pinch of salt” but added: “In the short term, I think we can expect some improvement in the Conservative position.”

 He continued: “Some short-term improvement can be expected but it is the long term that is the much more difficult challenge.”

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The new Prime Minister will be tasked with managing the mounting economic crisis which has threatened to curb Conservative hopes of re-election at the next general election.

The latest voter intention data from YouGov showed the Labour Party ahead with a 37-point lead over the Conservative Party.

While Sir John predicted a “short-term” improvement to the Tory poll position, he was cautious to highlight a historical pattern relating to general election outcomes.

He explained: “What Rishi Sunak faces is a historical record that says any government that presides over a fiscal or financial crisis – Labour in 1967, Labour in 1976, the Conservatives in 1992 and Labour again in 2008 – doesn’t win at the ballot box at the next election.”

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