Worsening relations of EU powerhouses could pave way for Poland

Olaf Scholz says Germany 'will manage better this winter'

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French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met in Paris with smiles and a handshake on Wednesday, but the two leaders have been locking horns on a number of matters sparking fears in the bloc of a risky end to the strong Franco-German alliance.

Mr Scholz flew into the French capital for a hastily scheduled working lunch to find common ground on differences shaking the EU’s two powerhouses after the French leader cancelled a joint cabinet meeting.

Moments before Scholz’s arrival, French government spokesman Olivier Veran downplayed any rifts, saying the Franco-German couple had always been able to overcome difficulties that arose from time to time.

“Today’s meeting reflects that this friendship remains alive,” Veran said.

But the number of issues on which France and Germany – the EU’s two richest and most influential members – are at odds over is growing, from the bloc’s defence strategy to its response to the energy crisis, relations with China and even fiscal policy.

The difficulties come as the EU struggles to reach an agreement on whether to cap gas prices in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

President Macron’s decision last week to postpone a joint cabinet meeting underlined the French president’s frustration. Berlin blamed logistical difficulties and played down the rift.

The Franco-German couple have had their ups and downs before and divorce has never ensued.

But Europe can ill afford a breakdown in relations that weakens EU unity as it firefights multiple crises: Russia’s war on its eastern fringe, spiralling inflation and its biggest economies teetering on the brink of recession.

“The goal is to make Berlin understand there’s a problem,” a senior French official said.

According to the Research Director at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and Head of the Alfred von Oppenheim Center for European Policy Studies, Dr Roderick Parkes, the fragile relationship between Germany and France could see other alliances grow stronger in the EU.

He told Express.co.uk: “What you may see is Nordic countries aligning with Poland in a way that would have been unthinkable before and maybe that’s true with the change of government in Sweden as well.”

Asked whether so-called frugal countries would turn to Poland to leave Germany behind in the future, he said: “Not necessarily replacing Germany but they have focused heavily on Germany in the last five years. I think they’ve been disappointed by it.

“I think they [Nordic countries] look at the Polish position on Russia and now that Sweden and Finland are joining NATO I think they may reassess their relationship to Poland – not necessarily replacing Germany but hedging more in that direction.

“So, that may be the direction of things a little bit as they’re disappointed by what they see in Berlin at the moment.”

It comes as EU energy ministers will hold another emergency meeting in November to try to make progress on a bloc-wide gas price cap, after talks on Tuesday left it unclear when Brussels would make a firm proposal on the measure.

EU countries have debated capping gas prices for weeks as some countries have backed the idea as a way to stem energy cost rises triggered by plummeting Russian gas supplies, while others have opposed it.

Ministers in Luxembourg on Tuesday discussed how an EU gas price limit could work, and agreed to hold another emergency meeting on the issue on November 24. The November meeting is also expected to adopt other emergency measures proposed by the Commission, the EU executive, last week, including rules to launch joint EU gas buying.

It would be the fourth EU emergency debate on energy since July, as the EU has rushed through measures designed to save fuel, fill gas storage and raise cash to help consumers with bills.

Czech industry minister Jozef Sikela, who chaired Tuesday’s talks, said there had been wide support among ministers for the introduction of a “dynamic price cap on electricity and gas which would limit the excessive price spikes in case of market panic”.

As part of the package of energy measures last week, the Commission asked for countries’ approval to draft a proposal for a price limit on trades at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Dutch gas hub, which could be triggered if prices spiked.

EU diplomats said countries remained split over the idea, with some describing Tuesday’s talks as a repeat of previous EU debates on the issue that have been inconclusive.

Ministers had “the same discussion we’ve been having for weeks,” one diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

Germany and the Netherlands are among those that are sceptical of a price cap, citing the risk it would cause gas use to rise or leave countries struggling to buy enough. Belgium, Italy, Poland and 12 other countries have called for a cap to help limit inflation.

“We have a number of questions over interventions in the gas market,” Dutch climate minister Rob Jetten said after the meeting, calling instead for tougher energy saving measures to help curb prices.

Any proposal would need to be negotiated by EU countries and passed with support from a reinforced majority of at least 15 states.

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