Humza Yousaf’s demise mapped as SNP ‘will lose seats at UK election’

Humza Yousaf admits 'challenging' time for SNP

Humza Yousaf has been Scotland’s First Minister for less than a fortnight — a period which has been anything but uneventful. The “scandal-struck” Scottish National Party (SNP) has been “bruised” in recent weeks by the ongoing investigation into its finances and the arrest of Peter Murrell, the party’s former chief executive, who was later released without charge. Not only that but the new First Minister also faces the challenge of winning over almost half his party membership after he lost 48 percent of the vote to his rival, Kate Forbes. Now, an expert has told Express.co.uk that the SNP is operating on the “defensive” with it clear that it will suffer at next year’s general election. 

James Mitchell, professor of public policy at the University of Edinburgh, said the party looked weak before Ms Sturgeon announced she was stepping down after eight years in office. 

He said: “There was evidence that the SNP was beginning to look vulnerable before Nicola Sturgeon resigned.  

“It was obvious that it had made no progress in advancing its goal of independence.  The leadership contest highlighted and deepened existing frustrations and criticisms. Scottish Labour looks and sounds more confident than it has done since 2007.”

That year saw the SNP win 47 seats, followed closely by Scottish Labour with 46 seats.

Currently, the SNP holds 48 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats and beat the Labour Party by 26 points at the last election in 2019. 

However, Professor Mitchell explained that the SNP’s decline is just beginning, the victory of 2019 a thing of the past. 

He continued: “It is very clear that the SNP is now very much on the defensive and will lose seats at the next UK election — it seems most likely that we are only beginning to see its decline.”

The SNP now face the upcoming potential byelection in Rutherglen and Hamilton West as pressure mounts for MP Margaret Ferrier to resign.

The disgraced MP faces suspension from the Commons for 30 days after she breached Covid-19 rules after she travelled from London to Glasgow by train while she had the virus in September 2020. 

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said last week that his party would “throw everything” at winning the constituency byelection. 

Mr Sarwar, during a visit to Rutherglen and Hamilton, said they need an MP that is on their side before adding: “When you’re out and about in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, you can feel the anger, it’s palpable, at how she has let them down, how she is mired in scandal.”

A recent poll conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies revealed that Labour had slashed the SNP lead to just five points as the party appears to be closing in on its rival. 

Of the 1,000 people asked from March 31 to April 1, 36 percent said they would vote for the SNP if a general election was held tomorrow compared to 45 percent in 2019.

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The poll demonstrates a recent trend that Labour is improving in public opinion. Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said the survey shows that the party is now “back in business”. 

She said: “The divided and scandal-struck SNP can only oppose the Tories — Scottish Labour can kick them out of power.

“Scotland needs a Labour government led by Keir Starmer at Westminster and a Scottish Labour government led by Anas Sarwar at Holyrood— it is our mission to make this happen.

“Scotland needs change, and Scottish Labour is determined to deliver it.”

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