The Anatomy of Market Cycles: How Rufat Abilov Predicts Cryptocurrency Market Movements

In the world of financial markets, one truth never changes: history repeats itself. Over more than six years in the cryptocurrency market — going from a beginner to a millionaire and the founder of a private investment club with 200 members — Rufat Abilov has developed a unique methodology for analyzing market cycles.

His forecasts have been accurate 90–95% of the time, and his “Gameplan” segment became so precise that people thought he was a market maker. In this article, we’ll break down the fundamental principles of understanding market cycles — principles that allow professional traders to make millions while most market participants take losses.

Fundamental Truth: Everything is Cyclical

“Markets can change, technologies can be created, but human psychology always remains the same — just as it was 200 years ago, so it is today.”

Historical Proof: There is a book whose author, 200–300 years before our era, predicted every major economic crisis almost to the exact year — including 2008 and 2020. How is that possible? Because everything is cyclical.

The Nature of Cyclicality

Cyclicality exists everywhere — in nature and in human behavior:

• In nature: water droplets, snowflakes, leaves — all have a fractal structure

   

• In economics: booms and busts repeat with mathematical precision

   

• In psychology: mass emotions follow predictable patterns

   

Key Principle: The market doesn’t move chaotically. It is always in either a global or a local cycle — but cycles are always present.

Market Psychology: The Driving Force Behind All Cycles

Rufat Abilov builds his analysis on three pillars:

1. Psychological analysis of market participants’ behavior

    

2. Technical analysis of charts and patterns

    

3. Fundamental analysis of on-chain metrics and actions of major players

    

How Crowd Psychology Works

Emotional stages of the cycle:

1. Despair — mass selling at the bottom

    

2. Hope — first signs of recovery

    

3. Optimism — growing confidence in the uptrend

    

4. Euphoria — buying at the peak

    

5. Panic — crash and the start of a new cycle

    

Example from the current market:

“If you were bullish but today you’re panicking over a market drop, you were never truly bullish — you just came here for quick money.”

The Biggest Misconceptions Among Market Participants

Misconception #1: “Altseason is the start of a bull market.”

Reality: Altseason is the final stage of a bull market.

• Altcoin growth takes up only 5–10% of the entire bull market’s duration

   

• It’s the last phase before the crash

   

• In financial history, the rise of “junk” assets has always signaled an impending meltdown

   

Analogy: Just like in the stock, mortgage, or real estate markets — a surge in questionable assets signals that a crash is near.

Misconception #2: “There won’t be growth because everyone would get rich.”

Logical Error: By that logic, the market should fall forever.

Why growth is possible even when it’s expected:

1. Freebet effect: Manipulators can afford to hand out some money as bait

    

2. Short sellers: There will always be traders aggressively shorting during rallies

    

3. Exhaustion: Many will exit on the first pump, only to return at the top

    

4. Newcomers: Fresh capital flows in as the market rises

    

5. Greed psychology: 95% of people holding big gains will never exit the market

    

Misconception #3: “Everyone is expecting growth, so it won’t happen.”

Counterargument: Over the past year, “everyone” can safely be cut in half — far too many traders have been liquidated.

Current market state:

• The remaining participants dream not of massive gains, but of simply breaking even

   

• Those heavily underwater just hope to recover part of their capital

   

• Only the most resilient players are still in the market

   

Manipulator’s strategy: The only way to shake out the strong is with a “carrot” (growth) — the “stick” has already removed the weak.

How Big Players Operate

The challenge for large capital: It’s not selling — it’s buying assets quietly. The algorithm:

1. Accumulate at bottom prices during peak fear

    

2. Pump the main asset (Bitcoin)

    

3. Rotate capital into altcoins to create FOMO

    

4. Distribute holdings during crowd euphoria

Current On-Chain Data:

• Bitcoin dominance is at its peak — a classic signal

   

• Altcoins at bottom levels are being bought up massively

   

• Large wallets show active accumulation

   

• $1.5 billion in liquidations in just two days

   

Rufat Abilov: “Alts are being accumulated by major players. They have real fundamental metrics — not fairy tales, but numbers. They are being genuinely bought and stored.”

Rufat Abilov’s Unique Methodology

A comprehensive approach to analysis:

1. Cycle Analysis: Understanding both global and local market phases

    

2. Psychological Analysis: Studying crowd sentiment and behavior

    

3. Whale Analysis: Tracking the movements of large capital

    

4. Fundamental Analysis: Evaluating projects as actual businesses

    

Positioning Principles

Capital Allocation:

• 90% of the portfolio — spot positions in quality assets

   

• 5–10% of the portfolio — futures trading with strict risk management

   

Investment Philosophy: “My goal is to be in the same boat as the big players by analyzing and understanding where manipulation may occur.”

Methodology Results

Public Achievements:

• FTT — 4–5x growth from the entry point

   

• SUI — bought at $0.40 (current price significantly higher)

   

• TON — entry at $1.50

   

• PEPE — bought almost at the bottom, with 15–20x growth

   

Overall Results: Grew a $500 deposit to $5,000 in two weeks publicly.

Current Challenges and Opportunities

Market Conditions (2025):

Negative factors:

• Mass liquidations and capitulation

   

• Bitcoin dominance at record highs

   

• Overall fear and uncertainty

   

Positive signals:

• Altcoin accumulation by large players

   

• Classic bottom sentiment

   

• Historical analogies pointing to a reversal

   

Forecast and Strategy

Expectations: Altseason is inevitable as part of the natural capital rotation.

Timeframe: The question isn’t “if” but “when” — in a month or in six months.

Recommendations:

• Buy quality assets at bottom levels

   

• Be patient until Bitcoin dominance reverses

   

• Be ready for volatility and psychological pressure

   

Practical Lessons for Investors

How to Properly Analyze Cycles:

1. Study history: Every cycle repeats the previous ones with slight variations

    

2. Watch psychology: Mass emotions are the best indicator of the cycle stage

    

3. Analyze on-chain metrics: The actions of large wallets matter more than the news

    

4. Think long-term: Short-term volatility is just noise

    

Key Principles of Success:

• Patience: “In this market, only those who aren’t too greedy and can remain patient will profit.”

   

• Discipline: Sticking to the plan regardless of emotions or external pressure

   

• Education: Constantly learning about the market, psychology, and new analytical methods

   

• Risk Management: Never risking your entire deposit

   

Conclusion: The Mastery of Predicting Cycles

Rufat Abilov’s ability to forecast market movements is not based on magic or luck, but on a deep understanding of the fundamental laws of financial markets. The cyclical nature of markets, crowd psychology, and the actions of large players — these three elements create predictable patterns.

The main lesson: Successful traders and investors don’t try to predict every market move. They understand the stages of cycles and position themselves according to long-term trends.

For modern investors, this means the need to:

• Study historical cycles and their patterns

   

• Develop an understanding of mass psychology

   

• Monitor the actions of institutional players

   

• Maintain discipline under extreme volatility

   

As Rufat himself said: “Six years in the market, and every time the big players do the exact same thing — yet people keep falling for it. Huge green candles are ahead, but you’re not ready for them.”

Time will tell how accurate his current forecasts will be — but his track record speaks for itself.

Rufat Abilov is a professional trader and investor with 6 years of experience in the cryptocurrency market. He is the founder of a private investment club, the author of numerous accurate forecasts, and has earned millions of dollars trading cryptocurrencies. He specializes in market psychology analysis and understanding the behavior of major players.