Tory MPs are no longer deluding themselves – no BBQ will change that

No rest for the wicked, as Rishi Sunak is learning. Last night he jetted back into Stansted after a news-heavy NATO summit, and immediately rushed back to No. 10 where Tory MPs were about to arrive any minute for his summer garden party.

Tory MPs were seen marching up Whitehall, some from parliament, others – more haggard – who had slotted in a no-doubt fruitless phone banking campaign session at CCHQ.

Though rain had been forecast to disrupt the event, in the end the sun shone down, undermining any hopes satirists may have had to use blunt pathetic fallacy to colour descriptions of the gathering.

A few MPs stopped to chat on their way, the tone of conversation light, relaxed, and with a tinge of relief that they could finally say the light at the end of the tunnel that is a long, hopefully quiet, summer Parliamentary recess.

Reviews after the event were positive – “pretty nice spread”, “people in good spirits”, “many ready for a break I think!”

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One MP described the event as having “end of term vibes”, though it seems they weren’t allowed to bring in board games to play with the PM.

Mr and Mrs Sunak toured and mingled, while their troops helped themselves to pulled pork from The English Hog Roast Company.

The PM notably didn’t make a speech, though he is expected up in front of the backbench 1922 committee at their final meeting before they break for Summer, so he’ll no doubt be saving his rallying cry of optimism for then.

Tory MP Angela Richardson even sang along to the band playing, which split opinion between “talented” and “made us gag”.

But beyond the pleasantries and sunny skies over the past few weeks’ Westminster drinks receptions, I think Tory MPs’ moods have changed.

Anyone willing to speak off script now seems to accept the delusions of the start of the year, that there is a narrow route through to a surprise election victory, seem to have finally dissipated.

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Back in November, No. 10 were saying if they could secure 30 percent in the polls by Christmas, they may be able to climb the steep hill and retake Labour.

Six months after that deadline, and the Tories are still lucky to find themselves touching 30 percent in a good poll.

Labour remains anywhere between 15 and 20 points ahead, and the economic outlook is only looking gloomier.

The real headache for Tory MPs is they’ve run out of rope – there’s simply nothing left to but sit back and watch the Government slowly battle with inflation, delivering yet more warnings that it simply can’t spend its way out of this crisis.

Not even Rishi’s fiercest opponent on his own backbenches thinks they could install yet another PM in Downing Street ahead of the next election, so talk is already turning to “who next after the election?”

The most they can cling to is that Rishi still remains on par with Keir Starmer when the public is asked who would make the best Prime Minister.

The PM is now being urged to use the summer preparing for the October party conference, which will be his last possible opportunity to actually set out what he believes.

He will need to drop the McKinsey-style managerialism and speak about who he is, what he believes in, and his vision for the country.

It will be his last proper opportunity to rally the troops, and change the public’s perception of him. It’s a tall order, and comes very close to the start of the long election campaign that will no doubt kick off in January.

The only thing I know for certain, is that if you think the Tory Party has become a chaotic, ungovernable mess over its last four years in office, just you wait until they’re in opposition. You ain’t seen nothing yet – Rishi may yet look like a pretty good leader in hindsight.

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