Biden Has 71.1% Chance of Winning Election: FiveThirtyEight

Joe Biden stands a 71.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the Sept. 7 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model. He is predicted to win 334 of 538 electoral votes.

  • The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 28.4%
  • According to the Sept. 7 run of the model, Trump had a 15.9% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 84.1%
  • The national polling average for Trump reached 42.9% on Sept. 7, the same as on Sept. 6
  • Biden’s national polling average reached 50.6% on Sept. 7 compared with 50.5% on Sept. 6
  • These were the FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts and polling averages by state on Sept. 7:
    StateElectoral Votes2016 WinnerTrump Poll AvgBiden Poll AvgTrump Win ChanceBiden Win Chance
    Alabama9Trump57.4%38.4%98.0%2.0%
    Alaska3Trump49.6%45.0%80.7%19.3%
    Arizona11Trump43.7%48.9%39.4%60.6%
    Arkansas6Trump47.0%45.0%93.8%6.2%
    California55Clinton30.9%61.3%0.2%99.8%
    Colorado9Clinton40.1%52.3%13.6%86.5%
    Connecticut7Clinton34.4%53.8%1.8%98.2%
    Delaware3Clinton38.4%57.3%0.3%99.7%
    District of Columbia3Clinton0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
    Florida29Trump45.5%48.6%42.1%57.9%
    Georgia16Trump46.6%45.6%68.1%31.9%
    Hawaii4Clinton30.3%56.7%1.2%98.8%
    Idaho4Trump0.0%0.0%99.4%0.6%
    Illinois20Clinton0.0%0.0%0.5%99.5%
    Indiana11Trump53.0%38.4%95.4%4.6%
    Iowa6Trump46.2%45.1%68.5%31.5%
    Kansas6Trump50.7%41.0%92.8%7.2%
    Kentucky8Trump55.1%39.7%97.7%2.3%
    Louisiana8Trump53.2%39.3%92.5%7.4%
    Maine4Clinton40.1%50.7%21.9%78.1%
    Maryland10Clinton35.1%59.6%0.2%99.8%
    Massachusetts11Clinton29.5%63.6%0.2%99.8%
    Michigan16Trump42.4%49.6%17.2%82.8%
    Minnesota10Clinton44.0%50.7%23.0%77.0%
    Mississippi6Trump53.6%40.8%87.8%12.2%
    Missouri10Trump49.6%43.5%90.2%9.8%
    Montana3Trump51.4%43.2%88.5%11.5%
    Nebraska5Trump0.0%0.0%98.5%1.5%
    Nevada6Clinton41.1%46.3%21.1%78.9%
    New Hampshire4Clinton43.2%50.7%27.9%72.1%
    New Jersey14Clinton35.6%54.1%3.6%96.4%
    New Mexico5Clinton41.3%53.8%7.2%92.8%
    New York29Clinton33.2%59.7%0.2%99.8%
    North Carolina15Trump46.6%48.7%47.4%52.6%
    North Dakota3Trump55.9%38.0%98.9%1.1%
    Ohio18Trump47.2%46.0%60.5%39.5%
    Oklahoma7Trump58.4%34.6%99.3%0.7%
    Oregon7Clinton0.0%0.0%8.2%91.8%
    Pennsylvania20Trump44.9%49.7%30.3%69.7%
    Rhode Island4Clinton0.0%0.0%1.4%98.6%
    South Carolina9Trump49.6%43.5%87.7%12.3%
    South Dakota3Trump0.0%0.0%96.7%3.3%
    Tennessee11Trump53.5%40.1%95.7%4.3%
    Texas38Trump47.1%46.6%71.3%28.7%
    Utah6Trump48.9%36.2%95.4%4.6%
    Vermont3Clinton0.0%0.0%0.8%99.2%
    Virginia13Clinton40.4%51.1%6.0%94.0%
    Washington12Clinton33.3%58.8%1.1%98.9%
    West Virginia5Trump64.6%32.4%99.3%0.7%
    Wisconsin10Trump43.1%50.3%25.1%74.9%
    Wyoming3Trump0.0%0.0%99.8%0.2%

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